The battle for l’Élysée begins, Ukraine prepares for battle in Donbass

and other FX market news.

Contents

    What’s new?

    E. Macron would win according to a Way-Kéa Partners opinion poll with 55% of votes which bodes well for the single currency. The evolution of voters intention as well as the development of Ukraine war will weight on EUR/USD.

    Regarding the Ukraine development, J.Biden warned Narendra Modi about importing more Russian oil, while Karl Nehammer, the Austrian Chancellor is pessimistic about peace prospect after being the first European leader visited Vladimir Poutin since the start of the war.

    Shunichi Suzuki, the Japanese Finance minister send verbal warning over the JPY weakening.

    “The government will closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange market, including the recent depreciation of the yen with a sense of vigilance,” Suzuki told reporters Tuesday. “That includes the impact on the Japanese economy.”

    The JPY stand firmer after the declaration but didn’t hold its gain as the weakening pace is due to fundamental monetary divergence policy between FED and BOJ. As long as policy maker keep stimulus, there is no reason the JPY strengthen, although an BOJ’s FX intervention might be confusing for market participants.

    What’s in the pipe?

    • Earnings season kicks off, including reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Wells Fargo
    • U.S. CPI, Tuesday
    • OPEC monthly oil market report, Tuesday
    • Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin due to speak, Tuesday
    • Bank of Canada rate decision, Wednesday
    • EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
    • Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
    • China trade, medium-term lending facilities, Wednesday
    • ECB rate decision, Thursday
    • Bank of Korea policy decision, Thursday
    • U.S. retail sales, initial jobless claims, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Thursday
    • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker due to speak Thursday
    • U.S. stock and bond markets are among those closed for Good Friday

    FX Rates

    USD/JPY @ 125.44 - bullish trend

    RSI : Overbought

    Williams %R: Overbought

    Close to oblique resistance : 126.04

    EUR/USD @ 1.0876 - Bearish trend

    GBP/USD @ 1.3030 - Bearish trend

    Close to horizontal support : 1.3010

    AUD/USD @ 0.7432USD/CNH @ 6.3761

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