Macron VS Lepen: the Remaking of a Government

and other FX market news

Contents

    What’s new?

    The outgoing President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Lepen are qualified for the 2nd round of the French presidential election. This is the result of the first round:

    • Emmanuel Macron (Progressive) : 27.6%
    • Marine Lepen (Far right) : 23.4%
    • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Far left) : 21.9%
    • Eric Zemmour (Ultra right) : 7%
    • Valérie Pecresse (right) : 4.5%
    • Yannick Jabot (Greens - Europe Ecology - The Greens) : 4.5%
    • Jean Lassalle : (Peasant party) : 3.16%
    • Fabien Roussel : (Communist) : 2.31%
    • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : (Sovereignist) : 2.07%
    • Anne Hidalgo (Left) : 1.74%
    • Philippe Poutou (Anti-capitalist) : 0.77%
    • Natalie Arthaud (Workers Struggle) : 0.57%

    E.Macron have now more chance to run for l’Elysée for a second time as its reservoir of votes are bigger than M.Lepen, indeed most candidates have already called to vote for Macron to block M.Lepen. This is is positive for the EUR, unfortunately, this positive news might be quickly chased by war development.

    Market sentiment continues to be shaped by a hawkish Fed, commodity-market disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the prospect of an economic slowdown. China’s Covid curbs threaten to exacerbate supply-chain snarls, further stoking inflation risks. The nation’s factory gate price increased more than expected in March.

    The U.K. economy grew less than expected in February after industrial production and construction shrank. the weak growth outlook will probably mean the central bank pauses its hiking cycle in the second half.

    What’s in the pipe?

    • Earnings season kicks off, including reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Wells Fargo
    • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to speak, Monday
    • EU foreign ministers meet, more Russia measures are on the agenda, Monday
    • U.S. CPI, Tuesday
    • OPEC monthly oil market report, Tuesday
    • Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin are due to speak, Tuesday
    • Bank of Canada rate decision, Wednesday
    • EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
    • Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
    • China trade, medium-term lending facilities, Wednesday
    • ECB rate decision, Thursday
    • Bank of Korea policy decision, Thursday
    • U.S. retail sales, initial jobless claims, business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Thursday
    • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are due to speak Thursday
    • U.S. stock and bond markets are among those closed for Good Friday

    FX Rates

    USD/JPY @ 125.25 - bullish trend

    RSI: Overbought

    Williams %R: Overbought

    EUR/USD @ 1.0902 - Bearish trend

    GBP/USD @ 1.3022 - Bearish trend

    AUD/USD @ 0.7465

    USD/CNH @ 6.3815

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